It is the spectre of inflation that has driven central banks to tighten monetary conditions and the root cause of all the equity losses and bond price falls this year. Stock markets have priced in the known news over inflation…
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The much-heralded 20th Communist Party Congress took place in early October and President Xi Jinping was confirmed as President for a further five years. In accepting the confirmation, he announced some new policies but one policy that did not change…
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A recession is looking likely, but on different timescales and depth of impact. The recession will be modest in the US but deeper in in the UK and Europe but this will depend upon inflation falling. If inflation remains elevated…
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On Tuesday 2nd November, the Fed FOMC raised interest rate by 0.75%s to 4.0%, which was broadly in line with what the economic consensus had expected. This is the fourth consecutive time that the FOMC has raised interest by an…
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The central outlook from fund managers is that the world will fall into recession but that it may be shallow. If we use the two quarters of negative GDP growth as the definition of a recession, then the USA has…
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This year, the price of a ‘safe’ 10-year UK government gilt has fallen by 25% and that of a 30-year gilt by 50%. The price of an index linked 15-year gilt has fallen by 60%. Investment falls of these magnitudes…
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There is something profoundly efficient in the UK’s unwritten constitution. It has been able to so quickly and quite ruthlessly removed a failed Prime Minister and started again as if nothing had happened. We can certainly say that we live…
Read more... Central banks are approaching the point of maximum danger as they attempt to both curb inflation without tipping economies into a painful recession. With UK inflation at 10.1% and eurozone at 10.7%, central banks are expected to react to this…
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A week has been a long time in both UK politics and the UK economy as markets punished Prime Minister Liz Truss and now ex Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng for a non-costed tax reducing budget. Announcing a fiscal stimulus package contingent…
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